services

Why do Forecasting?

All economic and future business analysis is ultimately related to accurate forecasting of the demand and supply of resources, goods and services. MSP Solutions understands the challenges of producing credible forecasts of future business activity. Today business has to understand and test its plans to a wide range of sensitivities of supply/demand including potential disruption before deciding whether and how any major investment should be made.  Forecasting is a complex exercise especially in a global economy where there is a free trade environment and communication is almost instantaneous. Today trading relationships create dependencies over hugely distant supply chains. The ability to quickly re-deploy resources to respond to changes in demand for goods and services requires flexibility of response and appropriate business strategies. Understanding how a wide range of business scenarios places differing demands and requirements on planning of new facilities and infrastructure is also essential.

The MSP Solutions Approach

MSP solutions have specialist expertise in transport and energy forecasting. We offer short, medium and long-term economic and supply/demand forecasting.  MSP solutions has specialist expertise in forecasting and modelling of the civil aviation sector for both passengers and cargo as well as for general travel and tourism. 

How our forecasting approach differs can be demonstrated through our work for a UK client where we looked at the impact of low-cost airlines on long-term passenger demand in the UK to 2030. We were commissioned to review the UK DfT passenger aviation forecasts and to recalculate them to assess the viability of building a major new airport in the UK Regions.

Our ability to understand the market, aviation regulation and the economics of airline and airport operations allowed us to develop alternative forecasting models. This showed that the DfT forecasts seriously underestimated passenger demand up to 2030. 

 

Our modelling technique is structured to reflect airline route development in both passenger and cargo and the factors that affect the decision by airlines to operate from particular airports.

The Benefit to Our Clients

Using the MSP forecasting approach our clients benefit from our detailed sector knowledge that is closely tied into our modelling techniques. Combined with expert domain knowledge, allows MSP to project, derive and develop flexible forecasting models to meet the specific client needs. We also evaluate the risks of disruptions and discontinuities, and help clients to examine the potential impact of positive and negative events on their business.

Hence we are able to provide our clients with the understanding they need of the intrinsic risks associated with economic activity, key trends and the factors affecting its markets as well as the likely demand and supply parameters of its future business environment.